You may have seen the headlines recently: housing is now at its most affordable since 2015.
That was the conclusion drawn from the Office for National Statistics’ latest Housing Affordability report, released at the end of March. On the surface, it sounds like genuinely good news – particularly after several years in which homeownership has felt increasingly out of reach for many.
But, as is often the case with property data, the headline only tells part of the story.
The ONS measures affordability by comparing median house prices with median earnings. In 2025, the average home in England cost £300,000, while median full-time earnings stood at £39,300. That produces an affordability ratio of 7.6, down from 7.8 the year before and the lowest level since 2015.
So, what’s changed?
Interestingly, this improvement hasn’t been driven by falling house prices. Instead, it reflects rising wages. Since 2021, earnings have increased by around 25%, while property prices have risen more modestly. In simple terms, incomes have started to catch up with house values.
That represents genuine progress. The extreme affordability pressures seen in 2021 have eased, and fewer areas now sit in the most unaffordable tiers.
However, this is where the nuance begins.
The ONS ratio compares house prices to gross earnings – not the actual cost of buying and owning a home. And in recent years, the true cost has been more heavily impacted by mortgage rates and rising inflation.
In 2021, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate sat at around 2.5%. Today, buyers are typically looking closer to 4.5% or higher. On a £300,000 property with a 10% deposit, that difference can mean monthly payments increasing from around £1,100 to £1,500.
So while the affordability ratio has improved, the monthly cost of owning a home has increased significantly.
At the same time, inflation has pushed up everyday expenses, from energy bills to groceries, insurance and childcare. For many households, wage growth has been absorbed by these rising costs, meaning real disposable income has not improved as much as the headline figures might suggest.
So how does this translate locally?
Here in Edgware, the affordability ratio is more stretched than the national average. Local Authority data suggests that median income for full time employees in the London Borough of Barnet is around £45,176, while the average property value stands at approximately £502,876. That produces an affordability ratio of just over 11 times income.
In other words, while affordability may be improving nationally, Edgware remains relatively expensive, and local buyers are likely to feel mortgage rate changes more keenly.
That doesn’t mean the market is weakening. In fact, activity levels have held up well. Transaction figures have risen in early 2026, more properties are coming to market, and buyer demand remains steady. The market is functioning – but it is also becoming more selective.
This is particularly important for sellers. With affordability still stretched in real terms, properties priced too ambitiously are more likely to stagnate. Buyers remain active, but they are also cautious and value-conscious.
The encouraging news is that well-priced homes are still achieving strong results, often within reasonable timeframes. The local market remains fundamentally strong, but strategy matters more than ever.
If you’re considering moving in 2026, understanding these nuances is key. The headlines may suggest improving affordability, but the reality is more complex – and navigating that complexity is where local expertise becomes invaluable.
If you’d like to discuss what these trends mean for your property, we’d be delighted to help.