The way the 24-hour news cycle works, it can feel strangely separating and desensitising to watch the constant news stream about events taking place around the world. These news stories are often vivid, often unsettling, but can somehow still feel distant, happening in another place, to somebody else – however much any such events might elicit our sympathy.
The headlines this weekend have been undeniably dramatic, and the footage playing out on those 24-hour news channels has been both hard to watch and equally difficult to put down.
Military strikes, reprisal strikes, the death of a key figure in the Gulf region, and much talk of escalation across the Middle East.
These might feel to some like distant events; to others, particularly those with ties to the region – and many local people here in North London do have those ties – these events can feel very close to home. We can only hope that things do not escalate in a way that affects more innocent people, in all parts.
In any case, geography is one thing, but economically speaking, no events like this are distant in reality – especially not those taking place in that part of the world. Coming just on the eve of the Spring Statement meant that whatever was to be announced by the Chancellor on Tuesday, 3 March, whilst being projected from OBR figures and findings, must be subject to potential revision, depending on what plays out economically following these global, geopolitical events.
And of course, the general economic outlook and the UK property market as a whole are closely linked.
If you’re thinking of buying or selling a property here in Edgware, or if you let out property here in London, despite the miles of distance between here and there, there are reasons to pay attention to what is going on and to how it might impact things here at home.
What Has Actually Happened
Over the weekend, US and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, not just targeting military infrastructure as we have seen previously, but in this case targeting and indeed killing senior leadership.
Iran retaliated with drone and missile attacks across the Gulf, with strikes not just in Israel but affecting other Gulf neighbours, with explosions and casualties seen in Bahrain, Dubai and Qatar.
By Monday morning, 2 March 2026, crude oil had surged 12–14%; by Monday afternoon, following counter-strikes against Qatar, gas prices had risen by 50%. Markets were pricing in the risk of further disruption.
Iran isn’t a peripheral player. It is a major oil producer, and the region sits astride shipping lanes that carry a significant share of the world’s energy supply. When that area becomes unstable, commodity markets react quickly, and sometimes ahead of any physical disruption at all.
Analysts are already talking about a “war premium” on oil – an extra layer of pricing driven not by today’s supply, but by fears about tomorrow’s.
From Oil Prices to Your Energy Bills
The UK doesn’t import oil directly from Iran – not in any meaningful quantities. But energy markets are global, and a price spike anywhere feeds through everywhere.
Higher prices of crude mean higher petrol and diesel costs within weeks – even within days. They also feed into domestic gas and electricity bills over the long term, as well as the costs of producing food, running logistics, and delivering goods and services.
For most households, energy costs are already significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels, even with the recent improvement seen with the price cap reduction. Even a modest further rise on top of that base is felt, and with rising food and fuel prices, it leaves less room in the monthly budget for everything else – including saving for deposits or taking out mortgages.
The Inflation Problem
Over the past year, UK inflation has been moving in the right direction. CPI has been easing, the worst of the gas price shock caused by the war in Ukraine has been working its way out of the system, and the Bank of England has started to show signs in its MPC voting patterns and announcements that it is becoming more optimistic.
A renewed spike in energy prices may disturb that picture. It won’t necessarily derail it, but there is no doubt it will feature in the conversation, creating bumps along the road that weren’t there before.
Inflation that was supposed to settle smoothly back to the 2% target, perhaps even as early as this Spring, may now take a more jagged path.
For households in general, inflation can often feel like an abstract word, but they nevertheless feel it in their monthly costs – or more to the point, what is left of monthly savings.
For movers, particularly buyers, it matters because it can have a direct impact on mortgage rates; and for sellers, it matters because it speaks to the prices those buyers are willing or able to pay for the homes they wish to sell.
What Does it Mean for Interest Rates?
There has been growing expectation that the Bank of England would look to cut the base rate again, with markets even pricing this in to take place when the MPC meets on Thursday, 19 March.
The events taking place in Iran don’t necessarily stop that from happening.
Central banks understand that energy shocks can be temporary and externally driven. They prefer to “look through” short-term spikes when the underlying picture remains calm.
But they can’t ignore it entirely. If energy prices rise and stay high, it can feed into broader price-setting behaviour, making the Bank more cautious. The vote was close last time – closer than expected –which has prompted speculation about a cut coming sooner than may have been forecast. But the hawks on the panel are likely to urge caution. The casting vote, as has been the case before, may fall to Andrew Bailey himself.
There is some positive news for homeowners and buyers, and for the general state of the housing market: the direction of travel on rates won’t have changed. But the pace may be slower, and the path somewhat less predictable, than many were hoping for just a couple of weeks ago.
What This Means for the Property Market
There are three things worth watching when it comes to the Edgware property market.
Firstly, mortgage rates. Tracker mortgages, and to a very large extent variable rate mortgages, will move up or down in line with the Bank of England’s base rate – currently at 3.75%, since the MPC voted to cut by 25 points on 18 December 2025. Fixed-rate deals, however, are often priced off expectations for future inflation and interest rates.
If those expectations are nudged higher – even temporarily – lenders are likely to pause rather than cut. We shouldn’t expect a straight line downwards – but equally, we would urge local homeowners, potential buyers and hopeful sellers not to worry if one isn’t seen.
Second, buyer budgets. Higher energy and fuel costs squeeze household finances directly and impact what lenders are willing to lend to them. For anyone trying to save a deposit or stretch to meet monthly mortgage payments, every extra £100 on bills matters. This can translate into smaller budgets, longer decision timelines, more caution at the point of offer and harder negotiating – and this is something that sellers must be prepared for.
Third, landlords. Higher energy costs hit rental properties directly through service charges, utility bills (especially if in the HMO space) and in the cost of maintenance and refurbishment. If rate cuts come slower than expected, buy-to-let investors also get less relief on their borrowing costs. Some will be able to absorb this. Some will pass it on through increased rents. And some, particularly those who already feel they are under pressure from regulation changes and what they see as ever-increasing amounts of red tape, may decide it’s the moment to sell.
Geopolitical uncertainty tends to make cautious people even more cautious.
Should You Wait and See?
This is a reasonable question – and over recent years, perhaps since the Brexit vote in 2016, it seems to be a question forever on the tip of the tongue.
But the answer hasn’t changed since then: it depends on what is driving your move.
If your plans are driven by a life event – a growing family, a job change, a relationship change, a need to be closer to schools or ageing parents – then global oil prices are background noise. The timing of your move should be driven by your circumstances, not by the headlines.
If you’re a discretionary mover, upsizing because you can, investing speculatively, perhaps making the most of a promotion, increased salary, a return to work, or even an inheritance, then it’s worth being aware that the macro backdrop is a little less settled than it was a month ago.
It is not alarming at this stage – markets have moved, yes, but rather than make a decision based on what happens over a weekend, you should take time to see what happens over a period of time. That said, it is worth factoring in.
The Local Picture
Here in North London, the market has been bubbling nicely since the start of the year, following a contracted 2025. 12-month property prices were recorded as £563,445 in my article on 9 January 2026, a figure provided by Rightmove. Today, around two months later, the 12-month average property price in Edgware is recorded on Rightmove as £579,990. What a difference two months make.
It doesn’t actually mean a 3% increase in the space of two months, as these are year-on-year numbers, not month-on-month. Nevertheless, local12-month rolling property prices were previously showing annual falls, whereas now they have levelled off year on year.
In other words, what it tells us isn’t that prices have jumped overnight, but that the rate of decline we saw through 2025 has eased significantly, even returning to a base level, as we have navigated the first couple of months of 2026.
So, yes, we have seen the property market improve, and attitudes locally have clearly begun to change. The effect on markets from conflict in the Middle East is worth monitoring, but overall, the property market fundamentals here in Edgware remain strong.
From our point of view as local Edgware estate agents, whilst we will be mindful of markets and interest rate fluctuations, we are not seeing events taking place in the Persian Gulf as a reason, at this stage, to value properties any differently when we are discussing marketing prices with those looking to sell their home.
Talk to Us
We can’t predict where oil prices will be in three months. What we can do is help you understand how the wider picture affects your options here and make sure that whatever decision you make is based on clear information.
If you’d like to talk through your plans, whether you’re thinking of buying, selling or reviewing your rental portfolio, get in touch. It can feel like a labyrinth to navigate, with all sorts of twists and turns to take, but a conversation with a local Edgware property expert can help put things into context.