There is a gap opening up between what you might read in the feed or see on the evening news, and what is actually happening at ground level in the property market here in Edgware.
It’s something I have written about before in recent weeks, and whilst I would not wish to labour the point, it is important in the context of this month’s market update because the background noise you may be hearing is not showing up in the numbers.
Much of the ongoing narrative out there would have it that the economic outlook is cloudy. Perhaps it is. And yet, in practice, the UK property market, and the Edgware property market along with it, are showing resilience that flies in the face of that sentiment.
What is shaping property market activity in Edgware in May 2026?
The first phase of the long-awaited Renters Rights Act came into force on May 1, 2026.
As many in the industry anticipated, April saw a notable increase in Section 21 notices being served – that is, landlords serving notice to reclaim possession of their property before the legislative window closed. This isn’t mere hyperbole; it has been covered in detail by The Guardian this week.
We don’t know the exact numbers yet – but we do know that the Citizens Advice Bureau reported a 16% increase in Section 21 cases they were helping tenants with, in March.
Some of that has translated directly into new sales listings, as landlords choose to exit rather than adapt. Here in Edgware, that may have contributed to the current total listings figure of 1,049 homes for sale – 36% higher than the number available this time last year!
147 of those homes came online in just the last month – 14% of the total properties for sale.
It doesn’t necessarily point to a swell of ex-rentals coming to market, although the shape of our market might suggest it is certainly a contributing factor. 42% of properties currently available in Edgware are flats, as opposed to houses, and flats form a large proportion of let properties in Edgware. In fact, 65% of rentals agreed in Edgware over the past 12 months were for flats, not houses.
We know there are many landlords considering their options currently, because they are our own clients and we have conversations with them. But, we also know that most of our own clients, having weighed up the new landscape, have decided to stay in the market – at least for the time being.
That decision is understandable when you look at the numbers. If a surge of Section 21 activity has displaced a wave of tenants simultaneously, then more tenants will now be chasing fewer available properties, perhaps explaining why the lettings market has become so fierce. Average rents in Edgware now stand at £1,823 per month. That represents a gross yield of 5.94%. There are not many asset classes right now offering that kind of return.
The investment case for buy-to-let, far from collapsing under the weight of new regulation, still looks attractive on paper – something that professional investors are showing signs of capitalising on.
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On the residential sales side of things, the conversation this week has been influenced by Bank of England’s decision last Thursday. The Monetary Policy Committee voted, as expected, to hold the base rate at 3.75%. The vote was 8–1, with the majority holding firm whilst one member, known to be hawkish in his outlook, pushed for a 0.25% increase, arguing that inflation risks remained underpriced.
Perhaps of note, no doves were pushing for a rate cut – only for a hold.
The consensus view among analysts is that one or two cuts are still on the table for this year, but that view has become considerably less certain in recent weeks.
Much of that uncertainty flows from the oil markets and the ongoing situation in Iran. The phrase ‘Trumpflation’ has now firmly entered the analyst vocabulary.
Moneyfacts published modelling this week that puts the picture in stark terms: in a worst-case scenario, where oil remains at $120 per barrel for an extended period, the base rate could climb as high as 5.25%, implying average mortgage rates of around 6.75% if historical patterns hold.
That said, Moneyfacts are clear that this is an extreme scenario, not a forecast. Their central expectation is more measured: inflation peaking at around 3.7% this year, before falling back towards 3% by autumn 2027.
It is undeniably a spanner in the works, however. Earlier this year the trajectory for inflation looked genuinely encouraging, and lenders were beginning to price accordingly. The mood of the market has altered somewhat. But, it has not collapsed into any sort of morbid depression.
Mortgage markets tend to move ahead of the Bank of England, and the expectation in most quarters is that, even if the base rate does tick slightly higher, lending rates will begin to soften before the inflation peaks, as markets will price in the anticipated downward path once it shows itself.
Some well-regarded house price forecasters have trimmed their expectations for growth this year as a result. Knight Frank’s Tom Bill, for instance, has revised his 2026 price growth forecast from 2% to 1.5%.
But a downward revision in projected growth is not the same thing as a prediction of a falling market; it is still growth, after all – just a little less of it than expected.
Of course, that is the national view.
Which brings us back to the question: how is the property market in Edgware?
The Property Market Picture in Edgware in May 2026
The average property sale price here currently stands at £502,497, which represents an increase of 2% over the past twelve months.
More telling than prices, however, is transaction activity: 510 sales have been recorded in Edgware over the past 12 months. That is a 6% decline in sales volume. But there is something we need to note…
The 12-month figure might be a little depressed compared to the previous 12 months, but we should remind ourselves that we no longer have March 2025 in the 12-month tally.
Why does that matter? It matters because March 2025 saw a staggering number of transactions go through, as people rushed to get ahead of the end of the Stamp Duty Holiday on March 31 last year.
When I say ‘staggering’, I mean it; 99 sales recorded in Edgware in that month alone. To put it into perspective, there were 24 transactions in Edgware that April, and only 32 in May.
The stamp duty holiday coming to a cliff-edge end really did drag the market forward, bringing sales through earlier – sales that would otherwise have been more evenly spread out through the spring. Sales that would therefore have been included in the 12-month tally we are now seeing.
99 sales in a single month is a huge outlier and inevitably distorts the wider data.
As we move into May, with the longer days and the traditional second wind of the spring selling season, given the increasing number of new listings available, the picture here is of a local market that is doing considerably better than the national mood music might suggest.
Buyers are active. Serious sellers are coming to market in significant numbers. The conditions exist for a genuinely productive Q2.
A Final Thought
At Petermans Estate Agents, none of this changes the fundamentals of what we do. Our job – now as always – is to understand our sellers and what they need to achieve, and to know our buyers well enough to match them to the right property.
Markets fluctuate. Interest rate decisions come and go. Inflation always plays a role in setting the scene and often affects affordability too.
But the craft of matching the right buyer to the right home does not change. With the residential sales market in Edgware performing as it is, we head into May with real momentum, and every expectation of helping our clients continue to move home.
Nevertheless, it is encouraging to see the landscape looking a little less rocky and the road ahead less bumpy as we move deeper into this busy spring period.