Tonight – and I write on the morning of Wednesday, 15 July, a day that one way or another will live in our nation’s sporting memory for decades to come – much of the country will be glued to a screen… and I’m afraid not one that is displaying the latest property listings in Edgware.
England play Argentina in Atlanta this evening, for a place in Sunday’s FIFA World Cup final, something that even the most disinterested of English people can’t help but be drawn in by.
Of course, I’ve watched this pattern play out for years, and this summer is no exception. Big international sports events – be it football or athletics or even tennis, sometimes, if we get a Brit in the business end of the later rounds – have a habit of squashing market activity.
We know this.
It is pretty well documented, too – see this article here from leading market insights specialists TwentyCI. And we are seeing signs of it again in this year’s data.
In June, sales agreed numbers across the UK fell by around 9% compared with the same period in 2025. London recorded some of the steepest declines. Zoopla and Rightmove have both pointed to the same culprit in their own analysis: a market “distracted” by the World Cup – exacerbated by other events, admittedly, such as not one but now two heatwaves, a conflict in Iran springing back to life (as I write now, on 15 July 2026), and with buyer demand down as much as 15% year-on-year.
Michael Bruce, a perhaps somewhat controversial but nevertheless vocal figure in property – he being the co-founder of Purplebricks – put it succinctly on Radio 4 only recently: this is a short-term effect, and it is confidence, not property prices or rates, that really drives people to move.
And that, in truth, is the villain in this story: not the football tournament itself, but the hesitation and distraction it creates. When the whole country’s attention is on Jude Bellingham’s right foot – or indeed his left foot, or his forehead – the significant financial and emotional decision of putting an offer in on a house, or putting a house on the market, can often get parked.
It happens every tournament, and it has happened again with this one.
It will pass; it always does. And when these things do pass, we tend to get a little bounce as the market springs back to life. This year, though, that bounce might matter more than most…
How the Property Market in July 2026 is primed for a rebound
The early-summer market slowdown hasn’t happened in isolation, caused purely by something that outwardly seems so frivolous as a World Cup.
The market was knocked off course by conflict in the Middle East breaking out at the end of February, which rattled markets, propelled swap rates upwards and spooked buyers and sellers alike, particularly as cost of living soared. It has been finding its feet ever since.
A ceasefire announced in early-June brought some relief, but this week has brought a genuinely uncomfortable reminder that the situation isn’t fully resolved, as hostilities have again flared. We won’t pretend that isn’t a factor that buyers – and indeed markets – are watching.
But there is cause for optimism. Money markets have been getting on with the complicated business of recovering, for one thing. At the moment, they are looking to all intents and purposes pretty positive right now, compared to the way things stood only four or five months ago.
Moneyfacts data shows fixed mortgage rates have now fallen for two consecutive months. It is the biggest monthly drop since October 2024, with both the average two-year and five-year fixed rates down to 5.52%. This is their lowest level since March, when rates headed up due to the war in the Middle East.
Product choice is improving too, with over 7,000 deals now on the table.
It matters, because although the market may be slightly distracted now, one way or another England will exit the World Cup this week… but what if we actually go and win it?
What happens to the economy when the football stops?
Tournaments always come to an end, and when they do, markets – and not least, the property market – tend to spring back to life.
But England winning a world cup after 60 years, with not even a European championship title in between, could be one of those one off events that really sends consumers into overdrive.
Estate agents up and down the country have said the same thing this summer: it is tough out there right now. On the other hand, though, many feel like there is genuine pent-up demand building. Once England is out of the competition – win, lose or draw – normal service resumes – but usually with a positive bump as people who paused their search pick it back up again.
What’s different this time is the possibility sitting right in front of us, as we head towards the semi-final tonight.
Will England win the World Cup?
We haven’t done so since 1966, men or women. But if Thomas Tuchel’s side beat Argentina tonight, then go on to win it on Sunday, we will certainly not just be talking about the normal end-of-tournament bounce. We will be talking about a genuine national mood shift, the kind of feel-good factor that has, historically, gone hand in hand with people feeling ready to make big decisions again.
It’s the same energy that made the Olympics in 2012 and then Wimbledon 2013 impossible to ignore, or that turned the Lionesses’ Euro 2022 win into a moment that changed how a generation thought about football, and women’s football in particular.
Confidence is contagious… and let us remember, moving house is, at its heart, a confidence decision.
No football result will single-handedly fix a housing market. Not on its own, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something.
But layer that with a widespread feel-good national mood, on top of falling mortgage rates, on top of almost record levels of housing stock up for sale and a market that is already primed to bounce back once the World Cup wraps up, and you have the ingredients right there for a market turning point, not just a seasonal correction.
My advice to anyone moving home in Edgware, whatever the result
If you’ve been sitting on a decision to buy or sell a property locally and have been waiting for “the right moment”, I do personally believe a positive period for our local North London property market is more likely on its way than not – and that doesn’t hinge on winning the trophy. It looks like it is coming anyway. The only thing that might derail that is the escalation of hostilities again this week in Iran, with the Bank of England set to make their next interest rates decision on July 30.
But generally speaking, inflation has moved in the right direction and remained reasonably stable, markets have not reacted wildly to the recent turmoil in Westminster and the pending change in Prime Minister, interest rates have held steady, and mortgage rates, as mentioned, have fallen to levels not seen since the market turned in March this year.
And we know from history that at the very worst, the autumn market does tend to pick up once summer distractions are behind us.
If England do go all the way on Sunday, I do just wonder if the feel-good will seep into the market and give us a summer boost.
Which all leaves me with just one more statement to make, for the sake of people selling property across the land.
Come on England!