Against a backdrop of global uncertainty and rising mortgage rates, the UK property market is holding its nerve, and two reports published by Forbes this month help explain why.
Here’s what the latest national data means for buyers and sellers in Edgware.
The headlines have been hard to ignore. Conflict, political turmoil, the rising price of oil, climbing mortgage rates, and a cost of living that continues to bear down on household budgets; it’s an unsettling backdrop for anyone weighing up one of the biggest financial decisions of their lives.
And yet the evidence on the ground tells a different story. Our own activity and the conversations we have with buyers and sellers point consistently to a market that is moving. Two Forbes reports published this April confirm this is not just a local phenomenon.
What the national picture shows
The most recent of the Forbes articles, published 20 April and drawing on Rightmove data, shows average asking prices rose 0.8% in April – £2,929 per property – bringing the national average to £373,971. That falls short of the long-term April norm of 1.2% asking price increase, but it is still upward movement in a month when many analysts feared prices might fall.
Asking prices are not the same as sale prices, but they reflect confidence – and confidence, for now, remains intact. Since the start of the Iran conflict, the average two-year fixed rate has risen from 4.25% to 5.42%, adding around £235 to typical monthly mortgage costs. Supply is at its highest for this time of year in over a decade. And yet agreed sales are only 3% below last year, according to Rightmove; that seems a remarkably narrow gap, given the narrative we have been fed in recent weeks.
Dataloft figures show transaction volumes in January 2026 were just 1% down on the same month in 2025, suggesting that this gap may even be closing.
Rightmove’s Colleen Babcock sums it up: home-movers are showing their usual resilience, with housing needs continuing to take priority even in uncertain times.
Several factors underpin this. Average earnings are up 3.9% year on year, outpacing asking price growth, which remains 0.9% lower than a year ago despite the recent uptick. As we wrote about in our recent article, it means that on a price-to-income metric, affordability in terms of ‘purchasing power’ has actually improved. Mortgage lending rule changes also mean many buyers can now borrow more than before.
There are signs the rate environment is stabilising too. Last week, HSBC, Halifax, Santander and TSB all cut rates, and the IMF has urged central banks including the Bank of England not to raise base rates further – a view that Governor Andrew Bailey appeared to endorse in a recent BBC interview. The chances of the base rate being held rather than increased on April 30 have risen to around 90%, according to currency exchange specialist Lumon.
The Halifax report: cautious, but not alarming
Another Forbes piece, this one from 8 April and drawing on Halifax data, painted a slightly more sobering picture – but one broadly consistent in message. Halifax recorded a 0.5% fall in house prices in March, with the national average dipping to £299,677 and annual growth slowing to 0.8%.
Amanda Bryden, Halifax’s head of mortgages, acknowledged that rising inflation expectations and higher rates had dampened earlier momentum. But she was measured rather than alarming: these rate rises were far less severe than the shock following the 2022 mini-Budget, and many households remain insulated having locked into fixed deals. Her conclusion carried cautious confidence.
That assessment was underlined the very day the Forbes piece appeared, when a US-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran prompted a sharp market rally and a fall in wholesale energy prices. Analysts remain watchful, but the initial reaction was unambiguously positive – a reminder that the picture can shift quickly, and not always for the worse.
One practical note for anyone choosing between mortgage products: the sharp rise in five-year fixed rates – up more than 80 basis points in just a few weeks – has driven many borrowers toward two-year fixes, expecting rates to ease before those terms expire. It’s a decision that deserves careful thought. If you need an introduction to an independent mortgage broker we know and trust, please do get in touch.
How is the Property Market in Edgware in 2026?
The property market in Edgware has been challenging in recent weeks, following a positive start to the year, as economic headlines gave buyers and sellers alike reason to pause for thought and proceed with caution.
Accessing property data provider Dataloft, we can see that 130 properties came up for sale in Edgware in March, but that this figure is 18.8% lower than the same period a year ago. The general supply of homes for sale has increased month by month since January – currently with 978 properties for sale locally – but transaction numbers have dropped on a rolling 12-month basis – almost 10% lower this February than they were in 2025. We await March’s number.
On the surface, these might look like concerning figures. Nevertheless, when we break down the figures themselves, we note that the market is becoming much more active in the entry-level and mid-market sector – a factor that marks a positive sign for market activity.
How can we see this? Simply, of the transactions we can see having taken place in Edgware, 37% have been sales of properties priced between £250,000 and £500,000, and 40% of sales have been for properties priced between £500,000 and £750,000.
Semi-detached properties, perhaps unsurprisingly given the general make-up of the area, account for the largest portion of all sales, at 37%, with both terraced properties and flats at around 27%. Only 8% of sales are detached homes.
This sort of ‘entry level’ and ‘middle market’ activity is important. These are the major drivers of any property market, with properties available for first time buyers and downsizers, and evidence that the family market is active.
This is interesting not least because, by its nature, much of this marketplace is made up of buyers taking mortgages. It shows that despite those recent rate rises, local intent amongst buyers and sellers to move home – despite the added economic pressure – is bearing up well.
Furthermore, there is some added context to consider. Last February, 2025, saw 45 transactions across Edgware, jumping to 90 in March. But remember, last year, March 31 was the deadline to exchange prior to the stamp duty holiday coming to an end. Sale numbers fell to just 21 sales in Edgware last April!
Why does that matter? It matters because when we look at figures, we need to understand the context. With no similar impetus this year to push sales through in March, the number of transactions in the first quarter of this year was always likely to fall behind last year’s figures.
By contrast, once we see the full data and know the number of transactions in April this year, the picture is likely to look very positive, compared directly to April last year – purely because we will be looking at more ‘normal’ patterns, which will be likely to beat the 21 sales recorded in April last year.
But just as February and March data shows a false negative versus the same-period data of 2025, we shouldn’t get carried away by the false positive that the April comparison will bring.
What matters more is seeing that ‘new listing’ number at 130 in March – actually a very healthy number – and noting that activity amongst mortgaged sellers and buyers in the £250,000 to £750,000 range in particular is lively and healthy.
It is very promising for the Edgware property market – and our own figures here at Petermans tell a similar story.
A measured outlook
Nobody should pretend the current environment is straightforward. Mortgage rates are higher than they were at the start of the year, the cost of living remains real for many families, and global events continue to cast a long shadow. Anyone thinking of buying or selling deserves honest advice, not false reassurance.
But the evidence from both Forbes reports – drawing on Rightmove, Halifax, Dataloft, the IMF and the ONS – shows a housing market proving more durable than the headlines suggest. People still need to move home; life events do not pause for long for geopolitical uncertainty alone.
For those in a position to act, the combination of more flexible lending rules, wages outpacing asking prices, and an improving mortgage landscape makes the picture more positive than the most anxious commentary implies. The market is resilient. And so, it seems, are the people who make it work.
Sources: Forbes, 20 April 2026 (Rightmove data); Forbes, 8 April 2026 (Halifax data); Dataloft Market Report April 2026; International Monetary Fund Regional Report April 2026