The property market has had a difficult few months. That much isn’t in dispute. Or is it? It depends which data you look at. If I told you the UK is having its third best year of sales for the last decade, you would probably be surprised – and yet, that is what the data shows. I’ll elaborate on that shortly.
The reality is, it is sentiment that typically informs you – the homeowner or house hunter – of what you should do next and how you should approach the market. For better or worse. And sentiment, let’s face it, is a funny old thing.
When tensions escalated to armed conflict breaking out in the Persian Gulf earlier this year, the consequences weren’t confined to the region, nor to international news bulletins. Geopolitics might seem like it should be out of the realms of what we should worry about here in Edgware; nevertheless it has a habit of making itself felt locally.
For example, oil prices climbed. Inflation rose and forecasts worsened. The Bank of England’s tone took a turn, from the positive signals we were hearing in January and February, to suddenly talk of rate hikes to come later this year, as many as three or even four, although four was always an extreme view. The trouble is, extreme as it was, it’s that sort of soundbite that sticks.
Mortgage markets, only just recovering from the tail end of a rocky 2025 readjustment, became wildly uncertain again – to the extent that they even became uncertain about their uncertainty, fluctuating up and down, and not always in line with what swap rates were doing.
The result of that is that buyers, and even brokers, have not known where they stood.
Sellers have kept coming forwards, however. It has been a peculiar picture, from that perspective. Seller confidence has remained stubbornly high, and we have seen levels of new instructions rise accordingly.
Nevertheless, buyers have pulled back and waited. We’re seeing that in the numbers, even if sale agreed numbers are high. Part of the reason they have performed well is that fall-through numbers have dropped significantly – by 13.3%, according to property data analytics and insights provider TwentyEA.
And that statistic right there is part of a story that’s worth telling; because whilst news headlines have popularised the worst of property market news, the market as a whole has remained stubbornly resilient by many measures.
It just depends what measures we want to look at.
The numbers you might see quoted – and those you might not
If you’ve been following the news, you’ll have perhaps heard some alarming statistics. Not least of those, just making headlines this week, is that transactions are down 40% since 2021. Alongside that, May’s transaction data came in 8.8% lower than the same month last year. The aforementioned TwentyEA revised its forecast downward, predicting total transactions of around 1.12 million in 2026, against the 1.2 million that had previously been pencilled in.
All of that is unarguable. There is nothing untrue about that data. But some quarters and commentators are framing it as a structural problem, something broken about the market that requires fixing. I have my concerns about the property market, and some of the systems and processes that govern it, but I am not entirely on board with that narrative.
For a start, context matters enormously when you’re reading property data – and context is the bit that often gets left out.
2021 was not a normal year, for a start – so as a point of comparison, that is automatically going to cast a lot of shade. It was a bumper year, truthfully – the standout of the past decade, inflated by the release of pent-up demand from the stalled 2020 market. Measuring everything against 2021 is measuring against a ‘best ever’ rather than an average – and in fact, over ten years, on average the market in 2026 is performing well – far better than headlines might have you believe.
A more telling picture comes from net sales agreed – i.e., gross sales minus ‘fall-throughs’. It provides a cleaner take on what is actually happening right now; transactions, after all, means completions – and although that reflects true ‘moves’, it means completions on sales that were actually agreed in 2025, a period of real market uncertainty (the months before November’s Budget), and therefore always going to lead to a shortfall in transaction data. In other words, this year’s transaction data is being dragged down by low activity in the second half of 2025.
So, what about those net sales figures? They are also down compared to 2021, but only by around 22%. Nevertheless, we are still currently on track for our third-best year for net sales in the past decade. Year to date, we’re ahead of every year from 2017 to 2020. We’re ahead of 2023 and 2024.
The market is tough, that much is true. We are working hard to make it work for our clients. But it is also holding its own in a way that the transaction headline doesn’t reflect.
A change in the market mood music
Recently, perhaps yet tentatively, a few things have changed that deserve attention.
Inflation fell in April. Not just a little, either. It dropped from 3.3% to 2.8%, falling further and faster than most economists had predicted. It stayed the same in May.
It isn’t the 2% target the Bank of England is tasked to reach. But it is the kind of number that makes the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) take a breath when they are considering what rate to set.
And then, in the week the MPC was due to meet to vote on the rate, the USA and Iran reached an agreement of sorts, reflected in a so-called ‘memorandum of understanding’ – a ceasefire, but also a framework to work to, as much as simply a pause in hostilities. A framework that allows for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened, that pressure point for global shipping which has been a key driver of oil price volatility.
It is a fragile arrangement. It is not a full peace treaty. But markets moved positively, and in this environment, directional signals matter.
And into that scenario, the MPC cast their vote, and the vote was to hold rates where they are, at 3.75%, not to increase. It is a ‘wait and see’ approach, but perhaps enough to stabilise and calm mortgage markets, softening rates and improving affordability for buyers who may be encouraged to come out of the woodwork.
And, of course, England beat Croatia 4-2 in their opening game.
That last one isn’t a joke.
One of the most underappreciated drivers of the property market is consumer confidence. Not interest rates. Not mortgage products. Not even asking prices. Confidence. A feel-good factor. Positive sentiment. The feeling that now is a reasonable time to make a big decision. This is the sort of human element that is so hard to predict, but which can turn the market on and off like flicking a switch.
Confidence moves people from just browsing on Rightmove to booking that viewing, or arranging that valuation.
Confidence is a mood. It responds to many things at once: geopolitical news, economic indicators, sporting results, the general sense that things might be turning in the right direction. Inflation markers. And right now, several things are conspiring to suggest ‘good news’ not ‘bad’.
Sometimes, that is all the market needs.
What the market looks like from here
We should be clear about what kind of recovery we might be talking about.
This is not a sellers’ market in the making. There is a huge volume of listings nationally — stock levels that are running well above the ten-year average – and it is the national number that will sway the majority of news headlines you’ll be hearing.
Locally, here in Edgware, we’ve seen 478 sales transact over the past 12 months. That is a 21% drop in transaction numbers, only around half of what current news headlines suggest for the national picture. 2,087 properties have been listed for sale here in the past 12 months, and 1,034 properties are available for sale right now; that is 26.3% more properties on the market today than one year ago.
If buyers start returning in any meaningful number, there is plenty of supply to absorb them. That’s actually a healthy dynamic for activity levels.
Nevertheless, what this doesn’t point to is a market in which sellers should price ambitiously and expect bidding wars. Overpricing right now is not a tactic; in fact, it’s a trap. Buyers are informed, cautious, and quite simply, they have options. A property that sits on the market through misplaced optimism isn’t just failing to sell, it’s actively losing value in the eyes of those who do come along later.
80% of properties sold this year have achieved that sale in under 30 days, without the need to reduce price. In other words, price sensibly from the start, you’ll see a sale agreed – on average – in less than a month. The other 20% of sales have achieved it after a reduction, but time on market drifts to more than double, in excess of 60 days on the market. Of course, that doesn’t account for the properties that are overpriced and remain unsold/
The one variable we can’t control
Much of the current market optimism rests on sentiment. That might depend on the fragile peace agreement holding in the Middle East. It might need England to progress to at least the Quarter Finals.
These things are out of our hands.
What isn’t out of our hands is everything else. Those are the levers worth pulling right now. Price accurately and honestly. Produce the very best marketing we can. Follow up viewers relentlessly.
In the current market, the gap between agents who do those things and agents who don’t is enormous. For the sellers and buyers at the sharp end of it, and especially for the sellers, it is a decision that is worth really careful consideration.
The tide could well be at the point of turning. What matters now is making sure you’re positioned to move with it, not scrambling to catch up when it does. If you’d like to discuss the current state of the market and what it means for your own home, get in touch with our team today. We would love to help.